House prices back to 2004 levels if Mark Carney’s prediction accurate

by Property 118

15:54 PM, 16th September 2018
About 4 days ago

House prices back to 2004 levels if Mark Carney’s prediction accurate

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House prices back to 2004 levels if Mark Carney’s prediction accurate

Average UK house prices could fall back to levels not seen since 2004 if Theresa May is not able to secure a Brexit deal, according to research by online estate agents Housesimple.com.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s warned ministers a “no-deal” Brexit could see house prices slump 35% over the next three years.

According to the latest Land Registry figures, the average UK house price in June 2018 was £228,384. If prices fell by as much as Mark Carney suggested they could fall, the average value of a UK property would slump to £148,449. Housesimple research reveals the last time prices were lower than this figure was June 2004, more than 14 years ago.

Housesimple.com also looked at the impact of a 35% drop in house prices across 50 major UK towns and cities. The research revealed that average prices in London would fall from £476,752 to £309,889, but due to the phenomenal property boom in the capital over the past 7-8 years, this would only mean prices fall back to October 2012 levels.
The impact of a 35% slump would be felt a lot greater in many Northern towns, where house price growth hasn’t been so rapid over the past decade. For example, a 35% drop in Blackpool, would see average prices crumble from £103,920 to £66,890, a level that hasn’t been seen since March 2003. While in Durham and Newcastle averages prices would drop back to June 2003 levels. At the other end of the scale, Luton would only see average prices fall back to March 2014 levels, from £238,243 to £154,858.

Sam Mitchell, CEO of online estate agents HouseSimple.com, comments:

“Mark Carney has been incendiary with his comments, but if his predictions help galvanise politicians into action, then maybe the end justifies the means. The longer we go without having a deal on the table, the more uncertainty will weigh on house prices. However, it’s highly unlikely prices will slump to the level that Carney has predicted, even with a “no-deal”. The UK property market has proven to be able to withstand some pretty turbulent economic news, not least when the country voted for Brexit and after Article 50 was invoked. And there’s no reason to think it can’t withstand whatever lies ahead.”



Comments

AA

18:09 PM, 16th September 2018
About 4 days ago

Never happen in a month of Sundays. If this happens then another thing will happen - Shelter will praise landlords as saintly pillars of every corner of every community. Governments will introduce subsidies and tax concessions, recognise the service provided and weekly open letters of apology in the press for their hateful attacks on landlords. Do you see that happening ?

Not one for Brexit, however my prediction. No deal, WTO arrangements , supply side inflation kicks in so no scope for interest rate increases. Households would fold on a rate increase Pound devalues second wave of supply side inflation. Demand contracts. Mark Carney sadly not knowing basic economics gets BoE to adopt stimulus measures and starts printing money thus kicking the perverbial can down the street until his golden handshake parting.

The single most compelling reason for house price inflation in the UK is - if you make your money where a strongman runs the show, or a despot, or a General, or a cartel, and that's a lot of places, ( Continent of Africa, South America, the Far East. the Middle East …) and it can be taken from you, you park your money where the rule of law is absolute. Even if the buy-in has become pricier. Sterling devalues, investment becomes that more attractive...….

Colin Dartnell

8:39 AM, 19th September 2018
About A day ago

Headless chicken comes to mind!

david porter

9:13 AM, 19th September 2018
About A day ago

Along comes Brexit folowed by decline in sterling, which causes inflation and rise in Government debt. Government always inflates their way out of debt. Inflation causes wages to rise.
House prices are valued as a multiple of Owages and so house prices go up.
So even if as a result of section 24 you are making a small monthly loss hang on in there!

Mike Amapola

11:15 AM, 19th September 2018
About A day ago

Don't panic !
The price of Sangria & Vino Verano here in Spain is stable.
Sorry to be flipant

david porter

11:56 AM, 19th September 2018
About A day ago

Reply to the comment left by Mike Amapola at 19/09/2018 - 11:15
You are drinking wine in a stable?
Lack of horse sense?

Jeanluc Realtor

12:55 PM, 19th September 2018
About A day ago

The Usual Suspects

Mark Carney
Moodys
Standard and Poor
The IMF
The "Markets"
All "allegedly" financial experts with a proven track record of knowing the square root of sod all!

I am expecting the pragmatists to lead the way in Brexit.
No-one wants to lose the UK as a customer, what barriers political idealists put in place the people who live in the real world will overcome.

Dennis Leverett

17:21 PM, 19th September 2018
About 21 hours ago

No deal will ultimately bring us the best deal, let Britain be Great again. Mind you having said that might be a little difficult with our current political chaos. 69% of my little internet business goes to countries outside of the EU already. How often do our so called experts get it wrong. Definition of an expert: an ex is a has been or an unknown quantity and a spurt is a drip under pressure. I think that says it all. Have a nice day all.


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