by Mick Roberts
10:45 AM, 3rd June 2021, About 3 weeks ago 6
Harrison is now predicting house prices will continue to rise until a crash happens in 2026! What does everyone else think?
Harrison claims he has mapped out all the past data and is able to use an 18-year property cycle model to forecast the next market downturn. Harison is quoted:
“Back in the 1930s, an 18-year business cycle was identified for trends in the city of Chicago. It rested on a theory about the land market, which operated on a 14-year cycle.
“I checked the theory against US-wide evidence for the 19th century and cross-checked the theory against the diverse cultural and geographic evidence from Japan and Australia over the 20th century, and I identified the cycle as operating within the UK for at least 300 years.”
However, would the Pandemic affect his calculations for the 18-year cycle? Apparently not:
‘The evidence reinforced my view that the virus did not have the power to stall the cycle. I concluded that the 2020s would be a re-run of the years after the flu pandemic of 1918, which terminated with the Crash of 1929.
“There might be a short-term easing off, as the post-pandemic world returns to something akin to normal, but the price trend will continue upwards.”
“Each 18-year cycle has a mid-cycle downturn, For the current cycle, that was 2019 and sure enough, there was an on-time downturn.”
“Nothing can stop the crash of 2026, other than if prices were limited to long-run affordable levels, but governments refuse to contemplate that prospect. If people are happy with the booms and busts, there doesn’t need to be a solution.
‘The best I can do is explain the future so that people can make informed judgements.”
Do we think he could be correct 3 times in a row?
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