What is the likelihood of a large Labour majority?

What is the likelihood of a large Labour majority?

9:36 AM, 25th October 2022, About A year ago 4

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Hi Everyone,
Much of the chatter in the media is Labour almost certainly is going to have a majority in the hundreds and the Tories down to routinely suggested less than 100 or even single numbers. I was musing how likely is that in reality?

Council by-elections are nowhere near as bad and sometimes the Tories still win seats. Among the talking points by Labour is ‘We won the council of Southampton’. However, apart from brief periods, it has been mostly Labour in recent decades – in 2012 and still was one when they lost one of the MP seats (Itchen). I realize governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them sometimes.

However, even after the downturn of ’08 and massive unemployment and etc, Labour was still only 70 from a majority. The Tories have poured masses of money into lowering peoples energy bills and despite what Labour infers at various points, the support was actually more than Labour was offering. Whereas labour did nothing to help bills, except for pensioners.

Equally, as everyone knows here, the Tories have changed the rental sector massively, more than Labour ever did and could even argue almost more than Labour said they would do (only thing left standing is rent controls). I realize the general public generally are ignorant about many things such as what the reality of Labour’s mantra of taxes only on the ‘rich’ to Labour saying the Tories have done nothing about landlords.

For instance, it is the affluent areas that seem to be going for the Lib Dems despite their tax policies they probably would hate. In my experience there is usually horror when these types find out the reality rather than the soundbite of the ‘rich’.

Then of course it is noticeable quite a lot of the social/left wing policies espoused by Corbyn seem to have not been returned.

There was reason enough to not like the Tories a year ago when they were ahead by 10-20% – so I just think for that now to be reversed is hardly proportionate.

I can get my head around Labour winning between general ignorance of the population that should know better (the middle class) and the media treating the Tories arguably like they did Corbyn and, in my view, most certainly the last years of labour 09/10. Not to mention the Tories have to a greater or lesser extent have actually targeted their own vote, especially since 2015.

So, I guess I would be interested to know everyone’s thoughts?

Sam


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Comments

Rerktyne

10:54 AM, 25th October 2022, About A year ago

It would be great if Labour came in, smashed BTL out of sheer political prejudice and then found themselves having to house so many homeless people - everywhere with a roof: Portacabins in St Pauls Cathedral , in The Tate, on Trafalgar Square, on all of Hyde Park and even one outside Number 10! And I hear there’s loads of space in Buckingham Palace!
The best laid plans of mice and idiots…….

Rerktyne

10:58 AM, 25th October 2022, About A year ago

All of my flats are now half empty Airbnbs. No more freeloading parasites ( the new favourites of govts).
But I will expect them to demand licenses for that too.
Then all tourists will have to stay in crappy hotels and b&bs and eat out at Macdonalds every day!
So, screw up btl then tourism! Brilliant!!!!!

Tim Rogers

23:21 PM, 25th October 2022, About A year ago

I think the real issue will be the perception of 'the people' by the time we have a general election. Perception is a long way from reality and right now, with everything that's been going on, there's been a lot of spin and fostering of inaccuracies from all sides. If Rushi can get a grip on both his mp's and the wider party, so they all start pulling in the same direction, then things may swing back by the next general election.

The other aspect is the condition of the labour party. To what extent has the far left really been marginalised? If Labour form a government, will the left raise its head again? If so, can Kier control it or will Labour tear itself apart while trying to run the country.

The Forever Tenant

10:03 AM, 26th October 2022, About A year ago

I think there is a very good chance of a Labour majority at the next election, but not because of either parties policies. It will more likely be because they are not the Conservatives.

There feels like there is some apathy towards voting at the moment. A lot of voters don't like what the Conservatives have done and when they look at Labour they don't like what they see their either. However we seem to have been conditioned to believe that these are the only two real options open to us. So it's a case of vote for one of the parties you don't like, or don't vote at all.

I doubt that you have much to worry about the left leaning MPs in Labour, there's not that many. Corbyn was a fluke. He was an also ran, someone placed on the ballot just to appease the left leaning members. It came as quite a surprise to the party when the members voted heavily for him. This is why they then did everything they could to get him out of there again.

If you look at Starmer now and see what he is saying policy wise, it's not far off the Conservative policies. There is very little difference between these two parties now.

One of the things I am feeling at this point is that the Conservatives want to lose the next election by just a few seats. We are heading for an economic **** show and it feels like they want to stave off the worst of it until Labour come in, at which point all blame can be pointed at Labour instead of what came before.

I am not a staunch party voter, I have not voted for the same party each time. But right now, I have no idea who I am going to vote for.

One other thing. I don't think it will matter who wins the next election. Whoever is in power will have to react to the publics situation and outcry. It may be that the public demand something be done and so they will do so. It's why I worry about the recent increases in rent. I understand the reasons as to why it is happening, but if all increases are passed on directly to the tenant, then it could cause an uproar with those that don't know the situation for landlords. It would be that uproar that would force the Governments hand.

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