How will tenants cope with the landlord demographic timebomb?

How will tenants cope with the landlord demographic timebomb?

10:42 AM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago 14

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To say I was stunned to find out that just 15% – that’s 15% – of landlords are under the age of 45 would be an understatement.

Even worse, a government survey puts the average age of a BTL landlord at 58 – and 63% of landlords are over the age of 55. (The median age for the general population is 39).

I genuinely believe that policymakers will have been blindsided by the recent news from Hamptons that landlords are reaching retirement age and selling up.

It was this news story that prompted me to look deeper into the situation since the estate agent says that last year nearly 140,000 PRS homes were sold by retiring landlords.

That figure will be up to 100,000 for the next few years and there will be a peak in five years or so.

But don’t let that trend set off alarm bells just yet.

Opportunity of serving a section 21 notice

Because there’s another scary figure that shows there are nearly ONE MILLION landlords over the age of 65 and they might decide to sell for a quiet life – or at least while they still have the opportunity of serving a section 21 notice to evict a tenant.

But younger landlords need to pay attention too – because rent freezes and rent caps along with restrictions on selling a rental property are the potential ways to resolve what is a growing rental housing sector crisis.

Let me explain.

This rental crisis will worsen in the coming years as more and more landlords retire and sell their properties so there will be fewer rental homes available, and the remaining ones will become more expensive.

This trend is already driving up rents in many parts of the country, and it will only get worse as the landlord demographic timebomb continues to tick.

Bought when buy to let mortgages were introduced

The issue is simple: most private rental properties are owned by landlords who are part of the baby boomer generation that bought when buy to let mortgages were introduced in 1996.

They decided to invest to supplement their income and build a retirement nest egg.

Now those eggs are hatching as landlords reach retirement age and many are choosing to sell their properties and cash in their investment.

While this might seem like a smart financial decision for individual landlords, it will have disastrous consequences for tenants in the near future.

As properties are sold off, it will become even harder for young people and low-income households to find affordable accommodation.

And there’s no doubt that the government’s recent changes to buy-to-let regulations have made it less appealing for individual landlords to continue renting out their properties.

Landlords are also facing stricter regulations

Also, landlords are also facing stricter regulations on how they can operate – and the planned abolishing of section 21 really will put the skids under the private rented sector.

These tax and regulatory changes have already led to many landlords selling their properties, and the trend is only expected to continue.

And this predicted landlord flight doesn’t even include those who will pack up once the EPC regulations are confirmed.

So, what can be done to mitigate this crisis? The government has already taken some steps to encourage institutional investors to build more rental properties, but this is a slow and expensive process and unlikely to provide a solution in the short term. Property118 reports that the BTR sector has stalled already.

Instead, the government should focus on incentivising private landlords to continue renting out their properties. This could include tax breaks or other financial incentives that make it more appealing for landlords to remain in the market.

Lack of supply and the inevitable rent rises

I’m also certain that the lack of supply and the inevitable rent rises – and I haven’t even mentioned the impact of rising mortgage rates – will play a huge part in deciding what happens next.

This could see the government introducing more regulations to protect tenants from rent hikes – such as rent caps or freezes or an eviction ban.

While this may not be popular among landlords, a government might decide it is necessary to ensure that young people and low-income households are not left without a place to live in.

Some of these issues are going to be addressed in the Renters’ Reform Bill – and should Labour get in then their rent reform charter will certainly boost tenant protection at the expense of landlords.

Ensure that rents remain affordable for tenants

There’s also another solution. Retiring landlords should only sell their properties to other landlords to help maintain the supply of rental homes and ensure that rents remain affordable for tenants.

But why should we? Why should landlords bother doing anything like that? There won’t be any thanks from the likes of Shelter and Generation Rent – and certainly no acknowledgement from a grateful government.

So, there you have it. When we look back at this period, we will see the government didn’t deal with a landlord demographic timebomb. There was no short- or long-term plan to encourage landlords to stay or even invest. Just more draconian laws that discouraged landlord investment and helped fed-up investors leave.

There’s a certain poetic justice that the groups striving to protect renters’ rights at the expense of landlords will be ultimately undone by proud and conscientious landlords cashing in their retirement fund – leaving tenants wondering why they can’t afford the few rental homes that are left.

However, there’s nothing to celebrate here. Renters’ groups and the government have consistently created a situation that made renting very difficult, and landlords have struggled to make a profit. But no doubt landlords will be called ‘selfish’ for retiring and leaving renters without homes. Of course, it will be our fault, it’s always the landlord’s fault.

Until next time,

The Landlord Crusader


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Comments

Darren Peters

11:07 AM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

"There’s also another solution. Retiring landlords should only sell their properties to other landlords to help maintain the supply of rental homes and ensure that rents remain affordable for tenants."

No, the landlord should sell on the open market for the best price they can get, not take a hit selling to a smaller pool landlords who will not pay top dollar.

The government or Shelter is welcome to step in as buyer and pay market rate for the property if they wish to see it remain as a BTL.

Landlords shouldn't help those that kicked them in the teeth when those actors have the levers of power to solve the problem

Judith Wordsworth

11:21 AM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

Shelter has £1.4m in their bank account I believe.

They could, if they wanted, do rent to rent agreements with landlords to "help" .
Local Authorities have funds to purchase ex Council stock back, some even to purchase non ex-council property.

Martin

12:15 PM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

What a well written and frightening piece, this echoes what I and, presumably a lot of others have been saying on this forum.
I am 56 with a portfolio of 35 properties, which I have held since 2006. 18 months ago I had a solid business making good money supplying nice family houses to nice families at, what I believed to be sensible rents. I have always believed that empty houses cost money so when they came to market I was always the cheapest of that size and style in the area.
In the last year I've sold a house and I have another going through at the moment. Solely to release capital so I can afford to keep going. By the end of this year 11 properties will be on standard variable mortgages and I will have lost over half of my income. For the first time ever I've done a blanket rent increase across the portfolio. I have 2 tenants in arrears and whereas previously I've worked closely with people in trouble ( one took 18 months to get level) I now can't afford to.
All pain landlords have endured and now the interest rates, straw camel and back spring to mind.
What incentive is there for me to carry on?
More importantly if I was just starting my journey, what incentive is there for me to become a professional landlord?
The Country is sleep walking into a cataclysmic housing crisis. Each successive Government kicking the can a little further down the road and hoping it doesn't happen on their watch.
I have long thought I was a fairly typical portfolio landlord and this article seems to underline that.
If I am typical then the scariest thing is that I am now indeed going to wind down, take the money and retire. It's too hard now.
Imagine living in a 2 man tent with a pile of gold bars - who wouldn't cash the gold in and improve their life? - That's where I am mentally now.

GlanACC

14:57 PM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

As a landlord of 20+ years, my new mantra is Don't Delay - Sell Today. I still have 6 properties and will sell as soon as the tenants leave. BTL is a mugs game now. Too much is now in favour of the tenant, councils are even more unhelpful, interest rates are creeping up, if a tenant doesn't want to pay they don't have too and you will have a job and much expense of getting them out. Gove doesn't like landlords and Labour likes them even less.

Paul Essex

18:01 PM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

The only way I would want to sell with tenants is if this was to become CGT free.
Last time I looked I was offered just 80-85 of the vacant possession property value, coupled with the tax hit this was not an option.

Philip Jones

18:38 PM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

I don't understand why it's surprising that landlords are 20 years older than the median. It's a fairly small proportion of younger people who are owner occupier these days let alone saved enough for BTL. Plus if people have inherited a second property that's far more likely to happen in your 50s and 60s than your 20s.

Whiteskifreak Surrey

20:38 PM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Derek STOBBS at 12/05/2023 - 14:57
Correction - Gove HATES private landlords.
As does everybody else in this socialism government.

AT

23:45 PM, 12th May 2023, About 11 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Derek STOBBS at 12/05/2023 - 14:57
A fantastic article.

Wise words Derek, yes sell now, time will pass quickly and then we will be penalised for selling or won't be able to.

Sounds crazy, so does S24.

Mick Roberts

7:51 AM, 13th May 2023, About 11 months ago

Something I left earlier on similar subject:

They should be coming to ask us
What can we do for u Mick and your colleagues to keep u from selling? As tenants have no choice now and remaining Landlords can charge what they like. And why shouldn't they? Supply demand. We never know when the next attack is coming, so we've got to get in what we can while we can.

Sorry. U all bad Landlords and u all being hit with tie same punishment. Even u that's just fitted that new boiler and charging your same tenant of 20 years 70% of market rent. Surely u won't put that good tenants rent up now will u? And if we give u even worse fines and regs and rules next week, it won't tip u towards selling will it? Cause even though we hate u (even though you've done nothing wrong), we SO BADLY NEED U cause we can't house the ever growing homeless. Oh dear, we getting it wrong, aren't we.

When people place their money in a bank account and the bank up the road offers a better interest rate, the person then takes his her money out and puts it elsewhere ie. the bank account up the road. Landlords are human and if we restrict rents and make it so that Landlords can be better off with money in a bank with no threats or 30k fine if tenant takes battery out smoke alarm, that's what Landlord will do. If Govt say Landlord can't do that, u will find that Govt are talking about a charity or Council. Individual landlord human being that often started with nothing and went without and didn't receive hand-outs or taxpayers money, doesn't have to start doing that. Ooh I'll do your rent at lower cost than I can get elsewhere (even though many of us are doing just that) cause Govt says I've now got to be a charity.

GlanACC

8:36 AM, 13th May 2023, About 11 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Mick Roberts at 13/05/2023 - 07:51Mick, you sound very angry and have a right to be. Too us old lags that have been in the game for many years this comes as no shock or suprise. When you get your first BTL property you paint it up and its absolutely gleaming, do the garden up and maybe install a washing machine thinking the tenant will be appreciative and look after the place (many will).

My first BTL was even fully furnished (and it was my last !). You will probably get a letting agent to find a tenant and maybe manage the property.
NOW for the reality. - once a tenant has the property its very unlikely they will keep it as you would and wont do the garden, and the letting agent would have some some very basic checks. Don't take a reference from a previous landlord because he would write anything just to get rid of a bad tenant.
Although now illegal find any excuse not to take any prospective tenant who is on benefits and has to 'top up' the rent (shouldn't be difficult as there are at least 10 prospective tenants for each property). Wise words from me as most will struggle, big issue is if the tenants incom changes by even a small amount their benefit will stop while it is reassessed and then the rent stops and they will never catch up.
I have not had many bad tenants but the ones I have had were real 'professional scumbags' who knew every trick to stay in the property, causing a lot of expense to get them out.
As they say buyer beware

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