Bank of England breaks with Fed lead and increases Base rate by 0.5% to 5%

Bank of England breaks with Fed lead and increases Base rate by 0.5% to 5%

12:16 PM, 22nd June 2023, About 11 months ago 15

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7 to 2 to increase the Base rate by 0.5% against the expected 0.25% to a new post-credit crisis high of 5%. Interestingly the two dissenting Doves voted for no increase and to hold at 4.5%

The Bank of England stand accused of undershooting base rate increases, not following the Fed fast enough and now they look like they are overshooting to compensate. This is after the Fed recently announced they were putting rate increases on hold with US CPI inflation at 4% and protecting the small to medium-sized US banks overexposed to low-yielding bond investments.

Andrew Bailey does not seem to recognise the economic power of managing expectations. Market expectations on their own can dampen inflationary pressures without necessarily needing to increase rates by just looking and sounding like you are going to. Look at two-year fixed rates now beyond 6%.

CPI inflation did remain sticky this month at a static 8.7%

The May Monetary Policy Report indicated a Bank Rate average of just over 4% for the next three years. However, gilt yields have risen significantly, particularly over two years, causing a revised predicted average for the same three-year period of 5½%. This caused mortgage rates to rise and the sterling effective exchange rate to appreciate. Additionally, annual growth in private sector regular Average Weekly Earnings increased to 7.6% in the three months to April, 0.5% above expectations.

The MPC summary reported:

“CPI inflation is expected to fall significantly further during the course of the year, in the main reflecting developments in energy prices. Services CPI inflation is projected to remain broadly unchanged in the near term. Core goods CPI inflation is expected to decline later this year, supported by developments in cost and price indicators earlier in the supply chain. In particular, annual producer output price inflation has fallen very sharply in recent months. Food price inflation is projected to fall further in coming months.

“The MPC recognises that the second-round effects in domestic price and wage developments generated by external cost shocks are likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge. There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process, against the background of a tight labour market and continued resilience in demand.”


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Comments

GlanACC

16:31 PM, 22nd June 2023, About 11 months ago

I just can't see companies like Blackrock etc buying up tens of thousands of properties, they really aren't in that game (they would in effect be a housing association). For social tenants there are about 1.4 million of them, who the hell is going to buy up, take over and manage the properties and debts. Not the kind of thing big companies want to do, not profitable enough and way too much hassle. (I think John Lewis will struggle as well). prince William wants social housing on his land, let him have a go

Coastal

16:56 PM, 22nd June 2023, About 11 months ago

Reply to the comment left by GlanACC at 22/06/2023 - 16:31
Not so sure, I read recently BlackRock are buying up huge numbers of foreclosure properties in the states, using front companies! Bill Gates is buying up their farmland in the same manner. Under the WEF's mantra of "You'll own nothing and be happy" it's entirely possible in the UK too. When Sunak was Chancellor, he froze Stamp duty which predictably fuelled house prices and in turn people committing to large mortgages. A short while later, we find many could now potentially lose their homes. Something doesn't quite smell right!

GlanACC

17:04 PM, 22nd June 2023, About 11 months ago

Thats the states, over here they would still have to pay a premium (ie the extra 3% second home tax, no way round that) and they would also need to set up/use a managing agency. Also, its more difficult over here to get rid of non payers and the court system is jammed. Chap who lives behind me has just sold his BTL in 4 days, problem is it will take at least 8 weeks to do the searches etc (you cant do expedited searches here anymore)

Bristol Landlord

17:12 PM, 22nd June 2023, About 11 months ago

Reply to the comment left by GlanACC at 22/06/2023 - 16:31
In 2021 in the US business and real estate media there was a lot of chatter about Blackrock buying up single family homes. BR of course denied this and no doubt planted a few stories in the media to support their denials. I agree older housing stock will be harder to manage than new BTR housing. Institutional investors are always chasing the highest ROI but if they can make a buck by buying up distressed properties and contracting out the management to smaller local outfits perhaps they will, it’s all profit to them.
It remains to be seen how these interest rates will play out and who will buy all the upcoming distressed properties but I’m sure of a couple of things, these changes in interest rates are coordinated and done for the purpose of making some wealthy people even wealthier and that the Govt answers to and acts in the best interests of international financial interests rather than the ordinary people of the UK.

JeggNegg

23:10 PM, 22nd June 2023, About 11 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Bristol Landlord at 22/06/2023 - 15:36
i think he and MPC have been too slow in raising rates to where we currently are and our inflation is still too high and not reducing as quickly as we need. i am fearing at least another 0.5% before we peak in this interest rate cycle., because of their slow response a year ago. i hope the committee is replaced asap as they have failed to control inflation and most of uk will now suffer probably until new year. but i hope i am wrong

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