11:37 AM, 18th May 2012, About 10 years ago 8
Having thought through the economic problems in Greece I have to ask the question, will Greeks mass migrate to the UK?
In my opinion, Germany will eventually realise that supporting the Greek economy ad-infinitum just doesn’t make sense and will cut their losses and allow the Greek economy to fail. I also believe that point is very close.
The reason Greece has so many problems is that their only real industry to speak of is tourism. They are an unproductive country in economic terms, they simply can’t service their debts, let alone keep borrowing. State reliance and the expectation for government support of the Greek population is both unmanageable and unsustainable for the Greek government. If/when the Greek economy fails it is my opinion that Marshall Law will need to be implemented and that their banking system will completely collapse, i.e the Greek banks will close and nobody will be able to access their Greek bank accounts. The effects will be similar to what happened to Countries following the collapse of the Soviet Union, i.e. mass shrinkage of public sector and the withdrawal of all benefits. The difference, however, is that Greeks will not be confined to their own Country. I suspect that Europe will keep it’s borders open.
For a variety of reasons, not all Greeks will migrate but I suspect 15% to 20% will. Where will they go? I suspect that a lot of them will come to England as we have strong state support. Those who are tied to their own country for a variety of reasons will go through similar experiences to the former Soviet states. I know a fair bit about that as my partner is Russian and many of her friends come from the Ukraine. Without state support, people have no choice but to become entrepreneurial. To survive they will grow their own fruit and veg and will barter.
If many of the Greeks decide to migrate to the UK on the basis that our benefits system is so strong where will they live? I can only see that massive additional pressure will come to bear on the PRS but as so many landlords are exiting the LHA and HMO market I can see problems. Another large rise in immigration will cause several problems for the UK, in particular, housing, unemployment and a further burden on the benefits system.
How can the UK afford for this to happen?
What are the opportunities for PRS landlords?
It’s all very well to argue that increased demand for accommodation will inflate rents and perhaps even property values but what of the long term effects to our economy?
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