Mortgage lending – the real figures, not the spinMake Text Bigger
The true state of the housing market is revealed by blowing away the smoke and breaking the mirrors that expensive PR erect to deflect the truth.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders, the industry voice for all the UK’s largest banks and building societies, bravely states that remortgaging is up for the first quarter of 2011.
That’s fine, but the real statistic is mortgage lending is down year-on-year for first time homeowners remortgaging, buyers and movers.
The latest from the CML table omits the March 2010 data, but here is a reconstructed mortgage lending table for the past three years taken from the CML’s own statistics:
What these statistics really show is that loans to buy homes are down year-on-year, but remortgages are still lagging behind the figures of March 2009, when around 39,435 loans were agreed, worth about £34.9 billion, and bear no relation to those of March 2008, which shows a massive drop in mortgage lending across the board.
Any statistician will confirm that three sets of data are the minimum to plot a trend – this reconstruction plots those figures.
“The CML expects remortgaging to remain muted, both because of attractive reversionary rates automatically cutting in for many borrowers as they come out of their existing deals, and because of reduced remortgaging opportunities for those with reduced levels of equity as a result of falling house prices,” said the CML commenting on the latest release.
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