Delivering 300,000 new homes every year is a monumental task

Delivering 300,000 new homes every year is a monumental task

9:31 AM, 3rd August 2021, About 3 months ago 3

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The government will not achieve its pledge of delivering 300,000 new homes a year until 2028 at the current rate of progress according to research by StripeHomes.

 The UK’s housing crisis is long-lasting and well-reported, perpetuated mainly by a stark lack of housing supply. For decades, ruling government parties have outlined ambitious housing targets to help pull the nation out of this crisis, but each and every time, they’ve failed to bring their plans to fruition.

In 2017, the UK government pledged to build 300,000 new homes a year by ‘the mid-2020s’. We are now only a few years away from this deadline, and the data shows that the government has only just managed to break the 200,000 homes a year mark, let alone get close to 300,000.

In fact, they were closer in 2006, when they delivered 223,500 new homes. This number took a tumble in the years following the financial crisis of 2007 and, to date, has not been achieved again. The 200,000 mark was only breached again in 2019 when just north of 214,000 homes were delivered.

However, the research by StripeHomes shows that based on historic performance trends, the government may have beaten this previous total in 2020, with an estimated 225,000 homes thought to have been delivered. If so, this will mean an overall increase of just 1,500 homes in almost 15 years.

By analysing historic delivery performance since 2005, StripeHomes has also looked at the estimated time frame required for the government to actually hit its target of 300,000 new homes per year.

The data suggests that this year, 2021, 235,500 homes will be delivered and when looking forward, around 10,000 homes will be added to this number each year. However, at this rate of progress, the target of 300,000 will not be reached until 2028.

Table shows how long it will take the government to reach their annual target of 300,000 new homes per year based on current performance
Data Point Year United Kingdom
Existing data 2005 205,740
2006 208,980
2007 223,580
2008 187,324
2009 157,145
2010 135,993
2011 140,719
2012 141,610
2013 135,595
2014 145,124
2015 172,029
2016 171,884
2017 193,685
2018 198,979
2019 214,257
Forecast 2020 225,102
2021 235,541
2022 245,980
2023 256,419
2024 266,859
2025 277,298
2026 287,737
2027 298,176
2028 308,615
Data sourced from Gov.uk, Gov.scot, Gov.wales and finance-ni.gov.uk

Estimated housing delivery based on ETS (exponential smoothing) forecasting model including interpolation and accounting for seasonality.

Managing Director of StripeHomes, James Forrester, commented: “The government knows full well how bad the housing situation in the UK is, and they also know that delivering 300,000 new homes every year is a monumental task, not least at a time when global and local economies are in such flux following the pandemic.

“But if we’re waiting until 2028 to reach this much-needed target, we’re waiting far too long, especially when England alone currently has over 93,000 households in temporary accommodation and 1.1 million households currently on the waiting list for a social home.

“Finally, the availability of new  homes must also be matched by affordability. Yes, prices will fall slightly if supply is increased, but it’s more about ensuring that homes are built in the areas where they’re most needed and being made easily accessible to those people who need them.”



Comments

by Jack Craven

16:46 PM, 4th August 2021, About 3 months ago

as a rough calculation by 2028 they will be about one million houses short of the target anyway.

by Beaver

17:09 PM, 4th August 2021, About 3 months ago

On this statement:

“Finally, the availability of new homes must also be matched by affordability. Yes, prices will fall slightly if supply is increased, but it’s more about ensuring that homes are built in the areas where they’re most needed and being made easily accessible to those people who need them.”

How are they going to judge which areas are the areas where they're most needed and how are they going to judge which people most need them? Isn't this going to be just a way for developers to get around planning objections raised by local communities, destroy greenfield sites and green belt rather than have to build on brownfield sites?

by DSR

17:24 PM, 4th August 2021, About 3 months ago

we will be entering another Ice Age before they hit that target...!


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