The Housing Market – Bank of England Inflation Report

by Neil Patterson

12:09 PM, 5th August 2016
About 2 years ago

The Housing Market – Bank of England Inflation Report

Make Text Bigger
The Housing Market – Bank of England Inflation Report

Chart 2.4From the May Inflation Report, the planned 3% surcharge on stamp duty for second homes in April caused some housing transactions to be brought forward. Therefore the sharp fall in property purchase completions in the second Quarter of 2016 was anticipated (see Chart 2.4).

House price growth also slowed over the past few months with Quarter 1 growth 2016 at 2% and Quarter 2 growth falling to 2%.

The Bank of England forecast a further fall in the volume house of house purchases and a slow down of house price inflation (see Chart 2.5).

The most recent RICS housing survey showed a decline in house price and sales expectations for the next Quarter along with a significant fall in new sales enquiries and selling instruction in the last Quarter.Chart 2.5

Pre-referendum and the following Brexit uncertainty are noted as factors by the Bank with large purchase decisions likely to be deferred by reduced Household confidence on future income levels and lower expectations for housing market price growth.

The Bank anticipates that its stimulus to credit supply by way of the Term Funding Scheme should support continued housing demand even though it may be subdued in the medium term and even a small drop in house prices short term.

The proportion of existing owner occupiers moving house has remained low since the financial crisis in 2008, despite improvements in credit supply, and appears to be an ongoing trend caused by an increasing average age of the population.

Housing Market conclusions:

Decreasing housing market purchase activity and weaker confidence are expected weaken investment in the short term. This will subdue spending on services associated with property transactions.

As in previous trends, weakened confidence in the housing market is expected to cause a fall in new house building investment.



Comments

Mandy Thomson

14:13 PM, 5th August 2016
About 2 years ago

"The proportion of existing owner occupiers moving house has remained low since the financial crisis in 2008, despite improvements in credit supply, and appears to be an ongoing trend caused by an increasing average age of the population."

So this, not private landlords buying up property, is what is contributing to the housing shortage - most UK housing is still owner occupied.

Of the 19% of the population that is in private rented accommodation, a sizeable number of those will be students (often living in shared accommodation and other properties, such as studios, that other tenants wouldn't normally want) and people living as lodgers.

In addition to that, as has been said many times, landlords usually don't buy the same properties as first time buyers, because the much larger deposit they must put down does not make this financially viable. Landlords usually buy property priced below market value (which often needs a considerable amount of work) for the same reason - properties that most FTBs wouldn't want (and why should they, if they can manage to get a home that's ready to live in for their money?).

I wanted to make this clear, because of the constant scapegoating of landlords for the housing crisis. However, while it would be nice if much of the media and government stopped treating landlords as pariahs, I certainly wouldn't want to see the blame (which lies with successive governments) shifted to any other group in society, including older owner occupiers reluctant to move.

If the government wants to create more housing in the short term, why not offer a positive incentive to these reluctant owner occupiers to downsize?

Alison King

18:30 PM, 5th August 2016
About 2 years ago

Older owner occupiers can't move at the moment because Osbourne said he was going to increase the inheritance tax threshold on the family home massively in April 2017, so everyone planning on downsizing has to wait until then or their family loses out big-time.
I don't expect he considered the impact on the current housing crisis.

Glenn Ackroyd

9:21 AM, 6th August 2016
About 2 years ago

Home ownership has fallen since 2008, principally because of the the barriers to entry. When I bought my first house, I needed a 5% deposit and had to take out Mortgage Protection Insurance should I default and the lender suffer a shortfall. Because post 2008 lenders were needing 20-25% deposits, first time buyers were hung out to dry.

Now typically it's 10%, but that's still 100% more than pre 2008....

To redress the shortage of first time buyers, the government should offer the same mortgage shortfall protection equivalent to allow 5% mortgages for this sector only. They are so vital for creating liquidity all the way through the housing chain.

Transactions are around 40% below 2008 - that's millions fewer sales. The impact on the economy is enormous. Directly, less lender income, solicitor, mortgage, surveyor, insurance income. Carpet, household good sellers, Home improvement stores, tradesman etc etc.

Fix that and you're a long way there.

Mandy Thomson

9:37 AM, 6th August 2016
About 2 years ago

Reply to the comment left by "Glenn Ackroyd" at "06/08/2016 - 09:21":

Absolutely. Despite what the like of our friends over at House Price Crash might say, it isn't house prices that are the main barrier to the home ownership, it is availability, or lack, of finance.

To take just one example, in the 1970s my father went to see a mortgage broker at his local building society, but he was told "there's no way I can give you a mortgage". My father was working full time, on an average wage, and did lots of overtime, and my parents had saved up a large deposit. However, because my mother was a housewife and they had a family, the building society wouldn't entertain them. Even in that part of Greater London, house prices then were ridiculous low even in real terms, let alone compared to now.

Recardo Knights

16:53 PM, 7th August 2016
About 2 years ago

Deposits were increased, and mortgages became harder because no longer based on income it was based on income less lifestyle. Do you take a holiday or eat out. Do you pay for a gym membership, cable tv, or mobile phone.

I did down size in 2010 from a five bed house to a 2 bed bungalow. the 5 bed is rented to a family with 4 kids when I moved but it will be sold next year. Don't know where they will go as I charge £1500pcm when the place is probably worth £2000pcm or more.

Who in government want to help renters? Licensing fee, more regulations and fines, can't get rid of tenants as council say they should stay till the bailiffs arrive at my expense. Now lets pay tax on money we pay for our mortgage.

I am selling 2 properties this year and the other two next year.

If anyone would like to buy a 3 bed house in clacton (for £135000) the bailiff will be meeting me there on 15th August although the tenants moved out about 6 weeks ago but will not give me possession! All the furniture and possession is still in my wrecked house.


Leave Comments

Please Log-In OR Become a member to reply to comments or subscribe to new comment notifications.

Forgotten your password?

OR

BECOME A MEMBER

Patrick Collinson has got it wrong yet again!

The Landlords Union

Become a Member, it's FREE

Our mission is to facilitate the sharing of best practice amongst UK landlords, tenants and letting agents

Learn More