Consumer Price Index finally hits Bank of England 2% inflation target

Consumer Price Index finally hits Bank of England 2% inflation target

15:05 PM, 14th January 2014, About 10 years ago 17

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The Consumer Price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 2% in December down from 2.1% in November finally hitting the Bank of England’s target medium term figure for inflation.

CPI is the measure used by Government for targeting inflation and this is the first time since November 2009 the inflation has been at or below this target. CPIH annual inflation, which is the measure of consumer price inflation including owner occupiers’ housing costs, was actually lower at 1.9% in December.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) the largest contributions to the fall in inflation came from prices for food, non-alcoholic beverages and recreational goods and services. However, these were partially offset by an upward contribution from motor fuels.

This vindicates the Bank of England’s dogged insistence for the past 4 years that inflation was being caused by external rises in the cost of imports that we have no control over rather than any domestic demand lead inflation. Had we seen the Bank of England react to this inflation by increasing interest rates before the recovery, as called for by many sections of the press, we could have seen an even deeper recession than we have already.

The good news for Landlords with mortgages or commercial loans is that for the time being there is no pressure from inflation (the main economic target) to increase interest rates.

The main stream popular press are reporting that the next thing to worry about is unemployment dropping below 7% from its current 7.4% level. The 7% figure was only used as an economic reference by Mark Carney the governor of The Bank of England to show that we should not consider raising interest rates until the economy has hit this measure. It is NOT a figure that would trigger interest rate rises on its own.

The Prime Minister David Cameron said, “It’s welcome news that inflation is down and on target. As the economy grows and jobs are created this means more security for hard-working people.”

CPI


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Comments

Neil Patterson

8:41 AM, 15th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Just for reference to the above conversation wage inflation is currently running at 0.8%.

This is well below any level for concern.

Growth is limping and volatile to external forces at best. I would be more worried about stagnation than even considering inflation as an issue and I can't see any risk to raising the base rate in the short term.

It is the TV presenters and newspaper journalists that make me so cross as they usually understand nothing of economics apart from the last thing they were told and just because they are on the news people believe them.

All you Landlords out there know from experience that if you understand even a moderate amount about a particular subject when you see it reported in the press it is normally very shallow at best.

Sorry Rant over

Mark Alexander - Founder of Property118

8:54 AM, 15th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Reply to the comment left by "Mick Roberts" at "15/01/2014 - 07:31":

I was here Mick, and with inflation now at 2% and unemployment at 7.4% and falling, that's why I was asking the question I did.
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Mick Roberts

17:28 PM, 15th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Yes, silly old me, being quick in the morning, I've just read your comments properly-I knew one of the most knowledgeable landlords on the planet wouldn't be getting his wires crossed.
And yes, there are two variables now, that the top man at BOE has opened his mouth about unemployment below 7%-What's it to be:
Unemployment below 7%, but inflation also below 2%, so he can't raise rates?
Or inflation above 2%, but unemployment above 7%, so he still can't raise rates. People with trackers could be protected for years to come.

Mark Alexander - Founder of Property118

17:51 PM, 15th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Reply to the comment left by "Mick Roberts" at "15/01/2014 - 17:28":

Unless they are BoI or West Brom tracker mortgages, or mortgages from the next shyster lender to follow suit if we can't nip this trend for increasing the tracker margins in the bud PDQ!
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Colin Childs

18:17 PM, 15th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Reply to the comment left by "Mick Roberts" at "15/01/2014 - 17:28":

There's no one single factor that will determine a change in base rate. I feel that Carney is trying to instil a degree of confidence in the wider economy. For the media and the general public at large. Highlighting 3 key indicators makes for far more digestable news. The economy is complex, and the impact of pulling different levers can take variable periods of time to have any impact, if any at all. Must be a nervousness with the high debt levels. As only so such much can be inflated away.

Colin Childs

18:22 PM, 15th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Reply to the comment left by "Neil Patterson" at "15/01/2014 - 08:41":

Wage inflation may develop into 2 tiers. Skills in demand i.e. engineers etc. Whereas the service industries which dominate the UK economy. Have to compete with India, Eastern Europe etc. Within service industries I include a sizable element in the public sector who perform administration roles and functions. This sector of the workforce is going to get squeezed. With low pay rises and increased pension contributions already impacting.

Neil Patterson

9:08 AM, 16th January 2014, About 10 years ago

Reply to the comment left by "Colin Childs" at "15/01/2014 - 18:22":

Good point Collin,

This is where economics becomes so interesting because there is no one factor in any argument.

You are correct about wages, but as these emerging economies prosper with cheap exports then their currencies will increase in value on the exchange rates and balance it out and slow down the process.

Why we are not seeing this in China is because they are not a free market and the Chinese government are buying western stock to keep their exchange rate low instead of spending the money on improving their citizen's standard of living.

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