Bank Base rate kicking us when we’re down

Bank Base rate kicking us when we’re down

12:21 PM, 5th May 2022, About 2 months ago 42

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The Monetary Policy Committee have voted by a majority of 6-3 to increase Bank Rate by a quarter-point to a full 1% with 12 month CPI inflation rising to 7.0% in March, around 1% higher than expected in the February Report.

This is despite the vast majority of inflationary pressure coming from external global costs that we can’t control. The price of food is the price of food and as an essential item, an increase in interest rates is not going to control our demand or the costs. The same argument largely goes for energy and fuel.

The counter-argument is that pushing up interest rates increase the flow of money into Sterling boosting its value and decreasing the cost of goods purchased in foreign currencies.

The MPC has reaffirmed its preference in most circumstances to use Bank Rate as its active policy tool when adjusting the stance of monetary policy and has indicated further rises are predicted to be required up to around 2.5% by mid-2023, before falling to 2% at the end of the forecast period.

CPI inflation is expected to rise further over the remainder of the year, to just over 9% in 2022 Q2 and averaging slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4.

Wage growth is considered a risk factor for inflationary pressure with unemployment continuing to fall to 3.8%. However, there are some signs that the cost of living crisis is already affecting consumer demand.

The overall conclusion is we will have to wait and see what happens to the global markets and supply chains over the coming months and year before a clear indication of how long it will take cost inflation to wind out.



Comments

James Fraser

8:50 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 09/05/2022 - 07:50
You’re an absolute prize-winner, Dave. So many false assumptions, so little knowledge of facts.

1. There has never ever been a situation, ever, where landlords are buying 90% of the housing stock, let alone for cash. In fact, even at the very over-subscribed, runaway peak of all landlord purchasing in 2002, around 16% of purchases were to investors (some of whom were bringing back derelict stock, as I do). Your example is pointless as it could never happen. In fact, the reality of the situation that the media never want to report on is that your figures are almost precisely the wrong way round - 90% of homes currently go to owners outbidding landlords, with the tenth one hotly contested between owners and those trying to supply the rental market.

2. Since you’re such a genius with the ol’ common sense, can you quantify what happens to rents and homelessness when Section 24 squeezes supply?

3. If there were no landlords at all, what happens to renters, be they by necessity or choice?

4. If there were no landlords at all, there would be very little if any discernible effect on house prices. The knowledgeable reports, from NHPAU and the LSE, conclude this. House prices in this country were doubling on average every 7.5 years since 1948 (ONS), or a whole half a century before retail BTL had even started! Plus, we’re currently witnessing one of the biggest landlord sell-offs in history at 11,000 properties a month (don’t worry, no tenants at all were disrupted by this) and what is happening to prices? Yes that’s right Dave, they’re - err - rising at their fastest rate ever! How does that sit with your little theory?

Neil Patterson View Profile

9:00 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 09/05/2022 - 08:16
Dear Daveknowstheregs,
I thank all readers for their input and viewpoints and debate is healthy, but the subject matter needs to be discussed without personal attacks or remarks.
I have edited a few comments containing unnecessary personal and positional remarks so please may I ask we keep it to the subject matter so all readers can join in if they wish without fear.
Many thanks.

James Fraser

9:18 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Neil Patterson at 09/05/2022 - 09:00
Indeed Neil. Back to the subject.

I had never, ever worried about the BOE. My very earliest investment purchase was during the 15% era, so I’ve seen it all. Base rates come and go and you adjust accordingly, either more to the bank or more to the tax man. But S24 has crushed that. As rates rise it becomes impossible to survive in an environment where they’re not treated as a legitimate cost. We know tenants have faced higher rents and homelessness as landlords are forced to react to this stupidity, but now the rising rates will literally cause greater homelessness as pressure on landlords to sell up increases. More and more innocent tenant families will become victims of the BOE decisions where rent prices and evictions are concerned as landlords are left with no other choice but to escape. Scrap S24, and none of this matters quite so much.

Daveknowstheregs

9:21 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Oh, landlords not liking taking the blame for the housing price crisis?

What’s next? Bankers not liking the blame for the financial crash in 2008?

Shocker!

James Fraser

9:25 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 09/05/2022 - 09:21Or you could deal with the provable facts rather than your invented and misguided hypothesis?

Gromit

9:28 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 09/05/2022 - 08:16
It's "bleedin' obvious" that you know absolutely nothing about the housing market, so I doubt there is anything you could teach me.

Hopefully you'll have a soft landing when your cosy little bubble bursts.

Have you thought of working for Shelter or Generation Rent; your bigoted opnion of Landlords would fit in well there

JamesB

11:39 AM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 07/05/2022 - 09:17
A home costing under £1k to build?????????? That won't buy you a fitted front door.

Badger

12:05 PM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by JamesB at 09/05/2022 - 11:39
To be charitable to Dave I suspect that he means £1,000 when the house was built but he has forgotten to adjust for inflation.

OTOH, if I am wrong I'm sure he'll be along any moment now to set me straight.

My father had a 4 bed detached built for him in the mid-70s for £5,000 - albeit this was in a small village in Lincolnshire.

James Fraser

21:02 PM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 09/05/2022 - 20:50
Well I've got a couple of bananas here if you want them, Dave. Any chance of you answering any of my previous points? Y'know, maybe using a rational and referenceable fact, or even just an informed counter-argument?? Let's start with 'Does the rising interest rate environment make things better or (unnecessarily) worse for tenants? Give examples with particular reference to Section 24'.

Gromit

21:22 PM, 9th May 2022, About 2 months ago

Reply to the comment left by Daveknowstheregs at 09/05/2022 - 20:50
Q. What do you call someone who only accept facts that support their standpoint, and tries to rubbish any other facts that detract from their point of view?

Just saying something is "bleedin obvious" doesn't make it true.

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