Will Rachel’s Autumn Budget break private rented sector landlords?

The final countdown to Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget this week has begun, and I’m wondering whether the announcements might finally wake up landlords in the private rented sector.

I’m prepared to accept that a substantial number of landlords haven’t heard of the Renters’ Rights Act, or considered its impact, but a tax rise might just do the trick.

Like many, I will be watching on Wednesday with a strong cup of coffee to keep me awake to see if the kite flying will prove true and if there will be an 8% National Insurance charge on rental income.

It might prompt landlords who rely on agents or think that the change in legislation is nothing to worry about, reach for a calculator.

And when they’ve done the sums a few times, start to gulp.

Not only will landlords face paying NI on a loss, but the reality is that unincorporated landlords are in for a shock.

NI charge is a concern

A survey by Pegasus Insight on Property118 reveals that 81% of landlords describe the proposed NI charge as ‘very concerning’.

Nearly three‐quarters (73%) say potential changes to Capital Gains Tax keep them awake at night; for those planning to sell in the next year, that figure rises to 85%.

In reality, we may be watching the moment when the last domino falls in a string of regulatory and fiscal blows.

I’ve mentioned the Act, but looming EPC requirements and the possibility of replacing stamp duty with an annual property levy regime might finally break the PRS.

If you collect £1,200 a month rent, the concept of paying NI on that figure is enough to make many question why bother being a landlord.

Second, how big will the supply squeeze be if 40% of landlords who plan to sell at least one property in the next 12 months actually do so?

Not only will house prices take a knock, but there will be fewer homes to rent which means higher rents for tenants.

Radio 4’s Today programme last week had a landlord on who did well discussing the Act, but also someone from Generation Rent.

He repeated the canard that a landlord selling up doesn’t mean the house disappears.

No, it only disappears from the PRS – what planet are these people on when not understanding restricting supply?

Over regulation for the PRS

Then there’s something all landlords love – paperwork! We are facing regulation overload, especially landlords working in HMOs, or facing licensing, Article 4 directions and compliance costs.

The burden is already heavy, so the addition of another tax means that small landlords will be at a tipping point.

Rachel will talk about a ‘black hole’ in public finances of around £40 billion, which has doubled under Labour, naturally, so she might see rental income as an identifiable and politically tolerable target.

But this short‐term revenue raising comes at a long‐term cost.

If landlords start selling up or restructure into limited companies, the anticipated tax take may shrink, and the rental market could destabilise.

For me, the question remains: will this Budget be the straw that really breaks the camel’s back?

The Autumn Budget is not merely about balancing books; it is about choosing whether to stabilise the housing supply or actively encourage its disintegration.

So, prepare for the storm because the era of individual, unincorporated landlords is being systematically eroded, forcing landlords to incorporate or exit the PRS completely.

It’s going to be an interesting few weeks and months when the dust finally settles and sleepy landlords wake up angry at what is being done to them.

Until next time,

The Landlord Crusader

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