Housing market slows as pre-Budget uncertainty hits confidence

The UK’s housing market has stalled as anxiety over the upcoming Autumn Budget weighs heavily on both buyers and sellers, RICs reveals.

Its latest Residential Market Survey shows that demand, sales and listings all weakened for the third month running.

Many of the surveyors who responded are blaming pre-Budget uncertainty and fears of new tax rises.

New buyer enquiries slipped to a net balance of -24%, down from -21% in September, and that’s the lowest level since spring.

The drop was evident across every region, pointing to a nationwide hesitation as households hold off until they see what the Chancellor has planned.

Weak housing market

The organisation’s head of market research and analysis, Tarrant Parsons, said: “The housing market continued to show weakness in October, with activity levels drifting lower amid a lack of buyer confidence.

“Ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential measures in the upcoming Budget are thought to be compounding the cautious mood among both buyers and sellers, while above target inflation and rising unemployment are also a negative for the market.”

He added: “The coming months will be crucial in assessing how the market responds to the Budget, which could prove a turning point in either direction.

“Greater clarity over housing taxation policy may help stabilise sentiment, but if the measures announced add further pressure to activity, they risk deepening the current slowdown.”

Agreed sales down

RICS also says that agreed sales also continued their downward trend, falling to -24% from -17% the previous month.

Short-term sales expectations remain muted, though some optimism lingers for 2026, with a modest +7% expecting activity to improve next year.

At the same time, new vendor instructions fell for a third consecutive month, hitting -20%, the weakest figure since 2021.

Valuations and appraisals, a key early sign of supply, dropped sharply to -37%, hinting that many would-be sellers are sitting tight until the policy landscape becomes clearer.

Tenant demand is down

The national price balance remains at -19%, showing modest but steady declines with London, the South East and East Anglia being hit hardest.

Over the next three months, surveyors predict prices will ease slightly (-12%), but one-year expectations have turned positive again (+16%).

That suggests belief in a mild recovery once the Budget dust settles.

Tenant demand has also levelled off, with a -4% balance recorded, though landlord listings fell to -33%, the weakest since early 2020.

Landlord confidence is down amid the twin pressures of the Renters’ Rights Act and potential tax changes.

Tax rises to dent prices

Tom Bill, the head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “By the time the Budget arrives, the housing market will have endured three months of intense speculation around property taxes.

“Unless there is a pressing need to move, some buyers and sellers have understandably hit the pause button.”

He added: “While there will be clarity after 26 November, the wide range of tax rises on the table are likely to dent sentiment and put downwards pressure on house prices.”

Property118 commercial reality check

Market hesitation always punishes indecision. The pause ahead of the Autumn Budget is less about affordability and more about confidence. Buyers, sellers and landlords are waiting for tax clarity, but waiting rarely pays. Serious operators know that uncertainty is the most predictable part of this business cycle — and they plan for it.

What serious landlords should do next

Stay liquid and plan for volatility. Keep cash buffers ready to seize discounted opportunities if weaker investors retreat.

Review valuations and equity positions. Reassess your loan-to-value ratios and refinancing timelines while the market is quiet.

Use the slowdown to tighten operations. Review tenancies, costs and tax exposure before the Budget, not after. The landlords who move early will buy from those who freeze.

Advantage through professionalism

Discipline is what separates professional investors from spectators. When transaction volumes fall, the ability to price risk accurately becomes a competitive edge. Those who understand yields, finance and long-term structure will treat this slowdown as a buying window, not a warning sign.