HMRC seasonally adjusted figures show property transactions stable

There has been a lot of reporting on the fall in the number of property transactions in the last three months. This has been blamed in parts by economic uncertainty and Brexit.

However, HMRC UK property transactions statistics up to January 2019 show a numerical fall that when seasonally adjusted is actually quite stable and even increasing:

– The provisional seasonally adjusted count of residential property transactions increased by 0.8% between December 2018 and January 2019, and is 1.3% higher than January 2018.

– The provisional seasonally adjusted count of non-residential property transactions increased by 0.2% between December 2018 and January 2019, and is 2.4% higher than January 2018.

– The provisional seasonally adjusted UK property transaction count for January 2019 was 101,170 residential and 10,650 non-residential transactions.

Chart 5: Although fluctuating, residential transactions have been relatively stable over the previous 10-years

The fall in transactions starting at the end of 2007 coincided with the housing market slump and financial crisis. Prior to this, transaction counts had risen steadily, peaking in mid-2006.

The December 2009 peak for the seasonally adjusted estimate was associated with the end of the SDLT ‘holiday’, during which the lower tax threshold was raised to £175,000.The peak in March 2016 is associated with the introduction of higher rates on additional properties in April 2016.

Click Here to view the full HMRC source data.