Annual house price growth remains in double figures

Annual house price growth remains in double figures

11:11 AM, 30th September 2021, About 2 weeks ago

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The Nationwide House Price Index for September shows annual house price growth has eased back to 10.0%, from 11.0% in August with prices little changed month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal factors.

Wales and Northern Ireland were the strongest performing regions in the third quarter, with London the weakest.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, commented: “Annual house price growth remained in double digits for the fifth month in a row in September, though there was a modest slowdown to 10.0%, from 11.0% in August. House prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects. As a result, house prices remain c13% higher than before the pandemic began in early 2020.

Headlines Sep-21 Aug-21
Monthly Index* 494.0 493.3
Monthly Change* 0.1% 2.0%
Annual Change 10.0% 11.0%
Average Price

(not seasonally adjusted)

£248,742 £248,857

* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)

“Our regional house price data is produced quarterly and showed a mixed picture across the country in Q3 (the three months to September). While price growth accelerated in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, most English regions recorded a slowdown.

“Wales was the strongest performing region with house prices up 15.3% year-on-year – the highest rate of growth since 2004. Price growth remained elevated in Northern Ireland at 14.3%. House price growth in Scotland picked up to 11.6% in Q3, in contrast to the previous quarter when it was the weakest performing part of the UK (at 7.1%).

“England saw a slowing in annual house price growth to 8.5%, from 9.9% in Q2. Price growth in northern England (North, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands and West Midlands) continued to exceed that in southern England (London, Outer Metropolitan, Outer South East, East Anglia and South West).

“Yorkshire & Humberside was the strongest performing English region for the second quarter in a row, with prices up 12.3% year-on-year, followed by the North West, which saw an 11.4% rise.

“London was the weakest performer, with annual growth slowing to 4.2% from 7.3% last quarter. The surrounding Outer Metropolitan region, which includes places such as Luton, Watford, Sevenoaks and Woking, also saw a softening to 6.8%, down from 8.2% in Q2.

“As we look towards the end of the year, the outlook remains uncertain. Activity is likely to soften for a period after the stamp duty holiday expires at the end of September, given the incentive for people to bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. Moreover, underlying demand is likely to soften around the turn of the year if unemployment rises as government support winds down, as seems likely.

“But this is far from assured. The labour market has remained remarkably resilient to date and, even if it does weaken, there is scope for shifts in housing preferences as a result of the pandemic – such as wanting more space or to relocate – to continue to support activity for some time yet.”

Regions over the last 12 months

Region Average Price

(Q3 2021)

Annual % change this quarter Annual % change last quarter
Wales £190,700 15.3% 13.4%
N Ireland £167,103 14.3% 14.0%
Yorks & H’side £188,457 12.3% 13.0%
Scotland £171,134 11.6% 7.1%
North West £191,326 11.4% 10.9%
North £147,358 10.9% 11.2%
East Midlands £215,284 10.5% 12.2%
West Midlands £220,558 9.9% 12.2%
South West £286,006 9.9% 10.4%
Outer S East £320,050 9.8% 10.9%
East Anglia £260,109 8.9% 9.7%
Outer Met £402,317 6.8% 8.2%
London £500,980 4.2% 7.3%
UK £247,535 10.3% 10.3%

 

UK Fact File (Q3 2021)
Quarterly average UK house price £247,535
Annual percentage change 10.3%
Quarterly change* 1.8%
Most expensive region London
Least expensive region North
Strongest annual price change Wales
Weakest annual price change London

* Seasonally adjusted

Nations – annual & quarterly price change

Nation Average Price

(Q3 2021)

Annual % change this quarter Quarterly % change*
Wales £190,700 15.3% 3.7%
N Ireland £167,103 14.3% 2.0%
Scotland £171,134 11.6% 3.0%
England £283,455 8.5% 1.0%

* Seasonally adjusted



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